Attitude

August 17th, 2010

My guess; it was a perfect financial storm. A financial event that rarely comes along, but some recognized it and took advantage.  Some stocks are higher now; others are not. Investors need to accept that those kinds of things happen. I cant say this strongly enough… If you don’t have money to lose, stay out of the markets, preserve capital!

 The stock market is more a fool’s game, a rigged game, that ever before, and a lot of people are getting out of the market. This is evident by the declining volume in the stock market and the vanishing yield on bonds. Fear is beginning to take hold. And that is what the bailout money is for, to calm the fear.

 The bail out money given to the banks is not intended to help the public sector financially. It is reserve cash held in bank vaults, in case the public gets nervous. Preparing for the eventuality of a run on the banks.  If this was to happen, and the banks were not prepared to cash out customers, there would be a complete loss of confidence in the system. This has not happened, yet, and I hope that it doesn’t. As a country, though, we need to get back to basics.

 Investors sign all kind of documents, a customer profile, agreeing that they understand the inherent risk in investing, and may lose all of their investment. Obviously there have been many losses to investors – the Bernie Madoffs are front-page news, the tip of the ice-burg – and there is no end in site.

 Politics, what can you say, Rob Blagojevich. Charles Rangel (Dem. N.Y.) accused of misconduct seems smug and in a bit of pickle. I believe he knows more than a spoonful about the nonsense that goes on in Washington, DC. You watch, Charlie won’t admit to anything… that amounts to more than a pat on the back. And they wont take him to trial either. He has something bigger that all of them: the entire political system hanging by a thread. Nobody wants Charlie to start spreading the sunshine. No, Charles will come out smelling like honey-suckle.

 I am outraged by the government action to finance corrupt business practice at taxpayer expense. Sarbanes-Oxley was not enforced. The banks books were cooked; it was all over looked and swept under the carpet. They made whole the crooks that created the problem in the first place. The courts served up no justice, and the politicians talked the issue to death, calling for study groups and more regulation. 

 As to the question: did GM bondholders take a backseat to UAW in the Bailout of GM? Well, that is one hell of a question. Of course they did. 

 DH

Oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico

June 8th, 2010

Everyone has there own way to describe the massive hemorrhaging of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. I think of it as a disaster of Biblical proportion, apocalyptic, but that’s me.  British Petroleum’s inabilities to restrict, inhibit, cap, or in general stop the flow of oil in a reasonable time frame is unacceptable. The technology they have for a crisis of this level is woefully inadequate, clearly.  All deep-water rigs worldwide should be immediate shut down and capped, though, easer said that done, I fear.

 My understanding is that the leak on the ocean floor is a mile under the water surface. Then there is another hole through three miles of sediment bringing the oil up. I don’t know why they don’t drop some high explosive down the well hole and blow it up. Allowing the pressure from the well to seal itself with the debris from the explosion. This seemed a logical fix from the beginning, but I am no expert.

 I feel that BP does not want to lose the well production. The idea of drilling relief wells makes no sense, to me. I understand, I think, relieving the pressure will reduce the flow, but how will it stop the flow? Moreover, if there is a hole in a boat and water is coming in, would you necessarily want to drill another hole in the boat to relieve the pressure of the first hole? Or maybe the thinking is that the more holes you drill in the boat the easier it will be for the water to go out another hole? Some might buy this logic; I find it hard to swallow.

 Is BP’s objective to reduce the pressure so that they can more easily fix the damaged blow out protector and save the well? Maybe they really want more wells in the area as they are currently drilling two. They wanted one but the Obama administration wanted them to drill two wells. As we can see, the one causing all the trouble is a real gusher. BP will defiantly need to increase production to pay for this disaster of “Biblical proportion,” let’s call it what it is. And in the end that means you and I, the consumer. I won’t be buying gas from BP anymore so it will be up to you.

 David Helmericks

Stock Market Crash of 5/6/10

May 7th, 2010

Yesterday’s action in the stock market was intense; you needed a brass pair… to be short the market, or not watching TV. It was  explosive to the down side around 2:45.  The market dropped nearly a thousand points in a mater of minutes. There hasn’t been a move like that in the market since 1987… maybe never, depending on which matrix you use. If you are into that sort of drama, I hope you saw it; it was a sight to consider.

 If you were waiting on a pullback, you got it. You didn’t have time to think about the move, it came like a bolt of lighting. If your strategy was not clear in your mind before the pullback, chances are good that you missed the boat.  There was no time to call your broker, do any chart work, or get a cup of coffee for that matter. The action was that fast.

 The disbelief had triggered outrage, and commentators on the business channel made understated accusations of manipulation. Calling for an explanation from the traders on the floor of the NY stock exchange, which were standing stunned as if frozen in the headlights. There will be questions and comities formed to study the event. Tens of millions will be spent to find the answer to what went wrong. What happened? And who made a profit and who lost from the event. The media discussion will be historic. Still the answers will only lead to more questions about the rules of trading regarding individual investors – which should mean equal access to investing and trading the market; not more regulation for the little guy.

 There were huge losses for some and gains for others. The losers will cry foul; and those that gained will keep quiet! It will all be blamed on a computer glitch, along with human error. The early story was that a City Bank trader entered an order for a billion shares when he meant a million, but that is fodder for the masses. The real story, or at least one I can digest easily, is this: when strange trading action occurs in a particular stock, a specialist on the floor of the NY stock exchange can halt trading for thirty seconds to sort out events and find an honest bid and ask. The electronic exchange has no such time out.

 When the specialist halts trading, he notifies the electronic market that he is halting trading for thirty seconds. During the halt in trading by the specialists, the computers in the electronic exchange take over and fill market orders.  If you are selling at the market and the bid is 30, you expect to get around 30. But if the only buyer is at 15,  you only get 15 and not the thirty you expect. I believe this is what happened, but  I need time to take it apart and smell the fumes.

 The latest update, as to the cause of the sell off, is that it was the specialists trading halt that caused the melt down. I can see it. There are lessons to be learned from all of this. Always place limit orders never market orders.

 David Helmericks

Oil spill

May 4th, 2010

I am amazed with all the experts on TV. There are always at least two, one for and one against whatever the issue; and usually more to cover any gray area that may exist, and for thinkers that tilt outside the box. There is always respectful disagreement of the issue. If they want more face time, they become passionate about their position and start sighting this or that expert or government statistic, always questionable, to back up their argument. Then it breaks down and starts to sound ominous or cheerful depending on whom you trust.

 

The bleeding of oil we now have in the Gulf of Mexico is the exception to this rule of polite oppositional debate; and without exception it seems to be a bad thing. Jack Gerard, though, is not quick to jump on board with calling it a disaster. No, he is unsure as if there will be damage of consequence to the Gulf Coast. This does not surprise me. Jack is the CEO of the American Petroleum Institute in Washing, DC. I did however; notice a manner of self-doubt in Jack voice, as he tried to dispute the fact that the oil people have a serious PR problem on there hands. And tried to pawn off the incident of egregious environmental pollution as just another industrial accident. “This is nothing new to big business”, he said. Which is true.

 

Publicly people in his business are paid to have that point of view, which is a hard pill to swallow no mater how big the paycheck. Personally, as an owner of beachfront property on the Gulf Coast, it is devastated. Leaving your children a piece of oily-waste-saturated slue front property is not a comforting thought. The toxic breeze blowing in from the oil slick, if inhaled, is said to damage the Y chromosome, something the gentry class run away from. Once news of possible chromosome damage is public the property loses all value, and the only interested parties in the property now are people here illegally in the marine salvage business. Working the land.

 

David Helmericks

Goldman Hearing

April 27th, 2010

I am watching the Goldman Sachs hearing. One thing that is clear; there will be no more corporate email describing individual feelings about a deal.

First Equity Credit Card

April 22nd, 2010

To the president of Columbus Bank & Trust

Billy,

Your company CB&T (Columbus Bank & Trust), which is an amalgamation of small financial companies, put me in a bad spot today, declined my credit card purchase. The vendor was on the phone with one of the dullards in your customer service department trying to rectify the problem. After they had extracted all of my personnel information, including social security number, which I had to give to the check out clerk, my purchase was declined. No reason was given. So when I got home, I had to call your people back and go through the entire process again. I don’t know about you, but I have better things to do than to be put on hold for twenty minuets. I found out my credit limit had been reduced from $5,500.00 to $800.00 and that my 50.00 purchase put me over the new reduced limit. I have had the First Equity bank card for over three years and can’t remember ever running a balance, too bad for you. But you still get you cut from each purchase.

 

It seems to me, you want to extend credit to people who pay their bill in full and on time. But you and I both know that is not true. Currently the interest rate stands at 23.99 percent and goes up to 29.99 percent if I am late. Is the banks logo a shark fin? You make little money from people who pay the bill in full and on time each month. The banks extend credit to people who can’t pay their bill, that way you make the vigorous interest rate you charge. That kind of logic is what got the banks into the current crisis; moreover, it seems your bank has not learned the lesson.

 

 I am tired of dealing with idiots and thought I could profit by shorting your company stock (SNV), but found the share price to be under five dollars making it unavailable for shorting. I also found out that Gail Baker Page, a former Columbus Bank & Trust vice president was sentenced to eight months in prison for bank fraud. I can no longer, in good conscious, continue to do business with a bank on its way out, and would advise you to start sending out your resume.

 

 Good luck,

 David Helmericks

Charleston SC 29416